Crash
The aftermath of this 18-13 defeat to Warrington is filled with all the usual post-defeat emotions. Frustration, sadness, a tinge of anger and a dash of bewilderment.
We'd considered the possibility of not making the Grand Final in 2018 but only fleetingly. We'd been dominant. Just four losses in 30 league games taking in the 23-game regular season and the soon-to-be-forgotten Super 8s. We had the competition's best player, its best and most consistent hooker. We had two young, exciting halves and a pack featuring a nice mix of savvy veterans and explosive youngsters. Nobody really came close to Saints throughout most of the 2018 season. And yet the nature of the competition meant that one slip was all it would take to see it all come crashing down. That slip had seemed increasingly likely as the year wore on. The fearful pasting we took at Bolton in the Challenge Cup semi-final defeat to Catalans Dragons was our alarm call. The blaring noises got louder throughout Super 8s defeats to Huddersfield and Wigan at home. Suddenly we were vulnerable. Just another side, one of four with an even shot at winning the title. Well, no longer.
It's indisputable that Saints have been the best side over the 2018 season but it is of little consolation. We all knew the rules at the start of the season, rules that have been in place in Super League for 20 years taking into account a little tweak here and there. Whatever the playoff format the Grand Final has been the be all and end all of Super League since Wigan won the first one against Leeds Rhinos in 1998. We've suffered from it and we have profited from it throughout the first two decades of summer rugby. That's just how it is. We all accept it whether we agree with the concept or not, so now is not the time for bleating about the injustices of the system. Now is a time for deep reflection and, if social media is anything to go by, no small amount of knee-jerking. Frustrated fans look for scapegoats and some take it so badly that their memories erase everything that happened before the semi-final until the season is boiled down to a complete and overwhelming disaster. Playoff systems are an unforgiving beast.
Yet even if you can rationalise things a little better than that there is no getting away from the meaning behind the defeat. It means that someone other than Saints will be crowned Super League champions and it means that for a fourth successive season Saints have failed to win one of the two major trophies on offer in the professional domestic game. It also marks the fourth season in a row since their last Grand Final win in 2014 that Saints have fallen at the semi-final stage. Of all of those this one probably stings the most. This was the one with the most expectation attached to it. The first two in 2015 and 2016 were achieved with Keiron Cunningham's Grind rugby that few fans wanted or believed in. The third was lost to a Castleford side which had swept everything before it in the regular season and Super 8s before suffering its own moment of stark realisation of the full horror of playoff football in the Grand Final against Leeds. And even then it was a semi-final in which Saints went down by just a single point in almost heroic circumstances. The scapegoat hunters blamed Ryan Morgan for his late obstruction on Michael Shenton but they were drowned out by the sensible majority who recognised that this was a team that had given everything against another that had been superior to everyone all year. This year feels different. This year it feels like we could and should have done so much more to win this game and reach Old Trafford.
You have to credit Warrington and their coach Steve Price. Having seen his team torn apart on their own patch by Saints just 12 days before this encounter he went away and figured out a gameplan to stop that happening again. He has dragged a team which finished in the bottom four in 2017 to the top four in 2018 and now into their second major final of the season. That's quite some turnaround whether they end the season as champions or end it empty handed.
And so we are left with just a sense of disappointment, of shock and of quite a bit of regret. Lessons need to be learned if a Saints side that will look quite different in 2019 is to challenge again for the major prizes. The nucleus of a great side is in place and they are where they are due to some pretty fine margins. But hey that is sport. Time to suck it up, come back stronger next year. But not before we've taken a little look at what went wrong on the night. This might smart a bit if you are of a red vee persuasion.
Did Holbrook Pick The Right Team?
Having rested key players for the Super 8s games which led into this one Justin Holbrook had the benefit of having almost everyone fully fit. Only Alex Walmsley and Adam Swift remained unavailable as Jonny Lomax, Luke Thompson, Mark Percival and Jon Wilkin returned after taking a breather for the win over Castleford.
That reliance of experience over youth was expected. Three of those four have just been selected for Wayne Bennett's England squad which will take on New Zealand in a three-test series in the autumn. The surprise came at hooker where Morgan Knowles started with James Roby on the bench and no place in the 17 for Theo Fages. Roby is due to have surgery in the off season and so misses the test series with England. If there is a doubt about his fitness then perhaps Holbrook had no choice but to hold Roby back a little. In the event he played almost an hour of the game and was, as ever, one of Saints better performers. Forty-two tackles, 107 metres on 11 carries with three tackle busts show that the skipper offered his usual all action presence.
There is a bigger question surrounding the omission of Fages. The Frenchman was left out of the 17 for the recent home defeat by Wigan, a decision which cost Holbrook as Morgan left the fray early to allow Sean O'Loughlin and Joe Greenwood to ruthlessly expose Saints' makeshift left edge. Injuries cannot be predicted but the omission of Fages seemed to leave Saints vulnerable. He had been one of the keys to that 34-14 win at Warrington less than a fortnight ago, coming off the bench to contribute a try assist, 35 tackles, a clean break and an offload.
There's no suggestion that Fages is an undroppable, world class talent that no side can do without. This is a Saints side that has won games in 2018 without Ben Barba who maybe is in that bracket. But what Fages does give you is flexibility and options. Lomax finished the game with a compound fracture in his finger, almost certainly rendering him unable to take Barba's pass after the fullback had made a trademark thrust through the Warrington line late in the second half. Would Lomax have been left on the field had Fages been available? It's all hindsight but even without Lomax's injury Fages' considerable skills could surely have been put to good use. Fages is a risk taker and to his cost Holbrook had clearly decided beforehand that he wanted to be more conservative this time around.
The longer term worry is that Saints may lose Fages sooner rather than later. Missing the very biggest games is becoming a theme for him under Holbrook and few would blame him if he looked elsewhere for more game time. Our loss could be someone else's gain if Fages goes on to fulfil his potential elsewhere. For all the plaudits that Holbrook has rightfully taken for improving the limited squad of players left by Keiron Cunningham perhaps Fages is the one most in danger of going backwards under the Australian coach.
Did Holbrook Get The Gameplan Right?
The absence of Fages may not have been so screamingly obvious had Saints played with anything like the confidence and ambition that they had in that win over Warrington. A frantic contest was littered with offloads and second phases of play, all of which flew hastily out of the window this time. Thompson and Luke Douglas ran with heart and no shortage of effort but only the latter showed any inclination to turn in a tackle and keep the ball alive. And even then without success as he managed to draw a complete blank in the offload category. Saints managed just five offloads between them here, which is just one more than Jack Ashworth managed by himself during that previous meeting.
That Douglas grabbed Saints only try, a scruffy affair from a Danny Richardson kick that both Stefan Ratchford and Kevin Brown had ample opportunity to deal with, spoke volumes for their tactical approach. It was almost back to Cunningham-era tactics, playing out the sets and hoping to build pressure with a kick on the last. It felt like Holbrook had abandoned his own attacking principles and decided instead that only a safety first approach could prosper in playoff football. When you add into the mix some spectacularly poor last tackle options its a recipe for the proverbial. Richardson looks ever more bewildered when the onus is on him to conjure up something on the last play, while Barba, Roby and Percival were all guilty of poking weak nothing kicks into the arms of Wolves defenders or over the sideline close to the try line on play six. There was one head scratching example of Saints' last play cluelessnes which summed up all the rest when Tommy Makinson found himself aimlessly punting the ball down the field from the right touchline. And this was during the first half, a time before panic had not even had a chance to take off its coat and grab a complimentary glass of bucks fizz much less settle in for the night.
Richardson was powerless to control the game. There was too little variety in his kicking game. Plan A was the aimless bomb invariably gobbled up by Ratchford and Plan B was the crossfield bomb to Makinson which Wire's defence dealt with comfortably. When he wasn't kicking on the last Richardson was dithering, caught in possession for the turnover after failing to convince the defence that he could offer a real running threat. Repeated comparisons to Sean Long threaten to strangle Richardson's career before it has even began. Literally the only sensible comparison to be made between the two is the colour of their hair. Richardson has potential at this level but please can we leave him to develop it without lazy, inaccurate comparisons?
Of course it would have helped Richardson if he was not so heavily relied on. A more expansive gameplan could have led to far less need for him to produce the kind of last tackle magic that he does not yet possess. In that framework he can contribute well and even shine but as a key playmaker he has a distance to travel. We said when he ousted Matty Smith from the starting halfback role that there may be some pain before the gain with a youngster like Richardson and this is part of that process. Persevere with Richardson absolutely, but don't build him up to be someone he is not and even more importantly, don't build a gameplan for a semi-final that requires him to be what he is not. Yet.
Experience Could Still Have Saved Us
For all the flaws in Saints game there were some very basic things that experienced players could have done which might have seen us through. Much has been said about the decision to go for goal from a second half penalty by the north stand touchline. Richardson missed the opportunity but it was the only goal he missed on a night when he kicked three drop-goals. On another night those drop goals could have made him the hero.
The decision to go for goal was probably influenced by how badly Saints had been struggling in attack. It's very un-Saintsy but there seemed no belief in getting over for a try at that point. From what had gone before it was hard to disagree with that. With one or two points in it for large parts of the game taking any points on offer seemed reasonable, particularly with Richardson in the ranks.
It didn't work out, but it might not have mattered had Saints defended their try line better in the second half. An almost impregnable rear-guard in the first half crumbled after the break. Just minutes after Douglas' try had given Saints a 9-2 lead Percival stumbled dizzily out of Jack Hughes' way as he crossed to get Wire back in the game. Then came Tom Lineham's double. Barba laid down hopefully for the first, a challenge that told you that whatever happened on this night Barba would not be picking up an injury that might jeopardise his new deal with North Queensland. For the second Barba was again involved, statuesque as Lineham rounded him with ease having stepped out of Richardson's hopeful grab. For all he has dazzled us with his genius attacking play in 2018 Barba has defended for the most part like Clare Grogan trying to squash large pieces of fruit with a juicer on that classic episode of Shooting Stars. It makes you yearn for Adam Quinlan.
The New Saints
As Barba lay blubbering on the Totally Wicked turf thoughts turned to next year. The star attraction won't be around in 2019, while Jon Wilkin and Matty Smith also depart. Lachlan Coote replaces Barba although he is a very different player style wise. The polite euphemism is that he is steadier. Less of the spectacular but perhaps a little more reliable as a last line of defence. You could offer the same description of a Black and Decker drill.
The arrival of Joseph Paulo to replace Wilkin seems as straightforward a swap as you can expect when an NRL player is involved. Don't expect Paulo to give you the longevity and loyalty of Wilkin but do expect him to get through a similar amount of work while being good enough with the ball to provide a useful link between the backs and the forwards. Just don't play him at halfback please, Justin. Paulo is a back rower who may force Knowles to continue to share playing time as he has with Wilkin but who looks well capable of offering something to the Saints philosophy. A philosophy embodied by Wilkin whose emotional post-game speech said everything about him as a man, a player and a Saint after more than 400 appearances across 16 glorious years. Jon, we thank you.
Also arriving for next year is Kevin Naiqama, which is a little more complicated. There's no suggestion yet that Morgan will leave but there are only two centre spots between Naiqama, Morgan and Percival. Naiqama can play wing or fullback too but there is competition at the back from Coote and Lomax and out wide with Swift, Makinson and Regan Grace. If Morgan doesn't leave then someone is going to be this year's Matty Smith. A Super League player who would start for many clubs but who will find himself the odd one out. Which in many ways brings us back to Fages and his future in the red vee.
There's a lot for Holbrook to sort out and with a League Leaders Shield under his belt and 26 wins from 30 games included in that we should certainly put our trust in him to figure out the solutions. A recent WA12 Rugby League Show poll has Holbrook leading the way as the man you would select to coach a Saints Super League Dream Team. Ahead of legends of the club and the game like Ian Millward, Daniel Anderson and Shaun McRae. He did not justify that faith in this crushing loss that ends our 2018 adventure but all the pieces are in place for him to fulfil the promise of his first full season.
It's up to him now.
