Is Tonight's Game Worth Winning? - A Short History

Anyone who has been following the blog’s Twitter account (or even my own personal account if you are that desperate) will be aware that I have grave reservations about tonight’s Qualifying Semi-Final between Saints and Wigan. That is what it is called, by the way. A Qualifying Semi-Final. As opposed to the Elimination Semi-Final which was last night between Salford and Castleford. Or the Final Eliminator which is next week when the loser of tonight’s derby clash will host Salford. Crystal clear. Eye roll.

Anyway my reservations are born of the fact that I cannot believe that we are going to beat Wigan five times in one season. We are more than half way to that having already dismissed this bang average bunch of spoilers three times in 2019, but there is something about derby games that leads me to believe that a surprise result is in the offing somewhere. In addition, I have to grudgingly admit that Wigan have improved significantly from the absolute state they were in at the start of the season. Oh how we chuckled when they were docked two points for salary cap breaches and then given them back almost immediately because well….they’re Wigan. The hilarity ramped up when Wigan legend Shaun Edwards reneged on his promise to take over the coaching reins from Adrian Lam, preferring instead to continue with the lucrative tedium that is rugby union. Since those halcyon days they have put together a fine run towards the end of the season. Lam's men overhauled seven or eight clubs stuck in reverse to finish a creditable second in the Super League table at the end of the regular season. They still ended it 16 points behind Saints but from where they had been it was a massive improvement and one which makes them a dangerous playoff opponent.

Which brings me back to my fears. Perceived wisdom suggests that a win tonight, which would put us straight into the Old Trafford Grand Final on October 12, is the best way to go about our business. Get the week off while Wigan have to battle it out with an improving Salford Red Devils, then simply repeat the trick if Lam’s team come through that. But is it that simple? What is the likelihood, ignoring my paranoia about the prospects of winning five straight against Wigan, of beating the same team twice to win the title?

Well, quite good actually. I got to thinking about my theory and thought I would do a little digging. Is there any evidence that winning the game tonight will be A Bad Thing, and set us on a course towards Grand Final misery? Not much is the answer. The current top five playoff system, known as the McIntyre system, was re-introduced for 2019 but was also used for the first four seasons in which playoffs and a Grand Final were present in Super League from 1998-2001. During that time the side winning the Qualifying Semi-Final has only lost in the Grand Final on one occasion. That was in 1999 when Bradford Bulls walloped Saints 40-4 at Odsal only to find themselves on the end of an 8-6 defeat in Manchester.

The first playoff series of the Super League era came in 1998 when Wigan, who had topped the table by four points, nevertheless found themselves having to slog it out with Leeds Rhinos on two occasions before they could lift the trophy which would have been their by rights 12 months earlier. They were tight affairs, but the League Leaders won 17-4 in the Qualifying Semi-Final and then 10-4 in the Grand Final thanks to Jason Robinson’s much-played scoot across the Rhinos defensive line.

After Saints’ victory in 1999 the following year saw a precedent for what we all hope will happen in 2019. Saints again played Wigan in the Qualifying Semi-Final and gave them a 54-16 shellacking on their own patch. Sean Long ran riot, which the natives particularly enjoyed. I remember driving home from the JJB as it was that night thinking that there was no way imaginable that Wigan would recover from that absolute towelling to beat Saints in the Grand Final. They did not. They made it to Old Trafford courtesy of a 40-12 win over Bradford a week later, but went down 29-16 to Saints with Long again instrumental. In my mind’s eye I can still see Tim Jonkers striding away for the try that capped the win.

The following year did not provide a vintage playoff series for Saints. A 38-30 win over Leeds set up an Elimination Semi-Final at Hull which Ian Millward’s side scraped through 24-20. Yet they would go no further as the old enemy blew them away 44-10 in the Final Eliminator. Lam scored two tries for Wigan that night, but he couldn’t help his side win the title as the rule around Qualifying Semi-Final winners bringing home the bacon held true. Wigan had been beaten 24-18 by League Leaders Bradford to set up that meeting with Saints and then when they progressed to the big one they suffered an even more convincing defeat to the Bulls who ran out 37-6 winners.

I don’t know about you but at the end of all this I am feeling slightly better about our chances at Old Trafford should we pull off what I expect to be a victory on home soil tonight. The prospect of a last home game for coach Justin Holbrook makes it a special occasion so perhaps there is still much to look forward to. I still don’t like the fact that the winners of the league have to slum it in a trumped up playoff series, but history suggests that winning at the first attempt to get to Old Trafford is not necessarily a kiss of death. Even if it does mean that we will have won five derbies in a row in 2019. These are just numbers, right?

Eye roll.