Get thee behind me Challenge Cup heartbreak - we have a fifth Super League title in a row to win.
This should - but may not be - the message from within the ranks as Saints go back into league action hosting Leeds Rhinos on Friday night (July 28, kick-off 8.00pm).
Paul Wellens’ side crashed out of the cup after defeat to Leigh Leopards in the semi-final last weekend. Yet they still sit fourth in the Super League table and retain hopes of pulling off that much talked about ‘Drive For Five’ - a fifth consecutive Grand Final win.
The top two - which offers the shortest playoff route to Old Trafford - is out of range for this week but the champions could still leapfrog Wigan back into third should they win and the Warriors lose to the Leopards on Saturday (July 29). Yet as we will see there are reasons to be pessimistic. And if Saints should suffer an eighth Super League loss they could will slip down to fifth if Warrington can rediscover what it’s like to win.
The fact that the Wolves are playing against Wakefield should help them do that. Trinity are a different beast these days from the side which was getting nilled every other week earlier in the season but you would still expect Wire to prevail in that one. Happily, a sizeable points difference advantage over both Salford and Hull KR should prevent Saints from falling outside the top five for now.
Meanwhile the Rhinos have been busy lately doing what rhinos do. No, not eating 500 carrots for breakfast or shitting in a field but launching a late bid to resurrect their season. It’s been a mostly turgid campaign for Rohan Smith’s side but a run of three wins in their last four league games has them just about within range of a playoff place again. A golden point loss to Hull KR last time out was a big setback but they can still conceivably climb into that coveted top six. A win here coupled with defeats for Rovers and Salford might take them there as soon as this week.
That win is made more likely by the damage done to the Saints squad following the cup clash with Leigh. Wellens was already set to be without Joe Batchelor and Curtis Sironen before five more of his stars ran into problems. Alex Walmsley and Agnatius Paasi have been ruled out for the season after John Asiata’s so far unpunished chop block tackling antics while Louie McCarthy-Scarsbrook failed to re-emerge for the second half at Warrington due to a calf problem.
But that’s not all. Sione Mata’utia - no stranger to a week or two off following some careless transgression or other - has two more such weeks to contemplate. This time for a late hit on Ben Reynolds as the Leopards stand-off kicked downfield. Which brings us to the final member of last week’s squad absent this week. In fact, not just this week. We won’t see Joey Lussick in the red vee again after it was agreed that he could be released from his contract to return to his native Australia. Parramatta Eels have included him in their squad to face Melbourne Storm this week. He has returned to the Eels after his previous stint there in 2021.
To fill that gap Wellens has signed utility man and occasional hooker Moses Mbye from Wests Tigers on a two and a half year deal. He is already here and could make his debut having been included in the 21. Also in - and this is better news in a week in which hand grenades seem to have been relentlessly going off in our faces - are James Roby and Mark Percival. Both missed the semi-final due to concussion protocols having picked up head knocks in the 14-12 home defeat to Catalans Dragons on July 13.
The others drafted in can’t quite boast the same level of experience. Lewis Baxter, Matty Foster, Taylor Pemberton and Wesley Bruines only have five first team appearances between them. Bruines has yet to make his senior competitive debut.
It’s a challenge to predict what the final line-up will look like. The back division should be the least affected area. Percival could just slot into his regular left centre position inside winger Tee Ritson and opposite Konrad Hurrell and Tommy Makinson. Welsby at fullback, Jonny Lomax at stand-off and Lewis Dodd at halfback are all likely to continue those roles.
Unless one of them - most likely Percival in the second row or Welsby at loose forward - is tasked with stepping into the pack. Roby, Matty Lees and Morgan Knowles are just about the only regular starters available although James Bell is kind of in that category having made 16 starts this term. It could be an opportunity for the promising George Delaney to get more minutes under his belt at prop while Dan Norman may get a chance to add to his 15 appearances in his third full season with the club. Sam Royle or Ben Davies could also come into Wellens’ thinking for a spot in the second row. Mbye looks set for a role as a back-up to Roby.
Things aren’t going to look familiar in the pack. While the opportunity to experiment with players in new positions has been forced on Wellens I’d like to see Knowles given at least some time at prop. He has previously proved very effective there in an admittedly small sample size of matches. Delaney could then be a prop interchange along with Norman.
Smith has a bit more stability within his ranks. His main absentees are England centre Harry Newman and former Penrith prop Zane Tetevano. Newman was injured during Leeds’ 13-12 loss to Saints at Headingley in May and was initially ruled out for 10-12 weeks. Meanwhile Tetevano is still recovering having suffered a stroke in training caused by a hole in his heart. Thankfully he appears to be on the mend and on the road back to fitness.
On the plus side James Donaldson returns to the squad following concussion protocols. He will compete for a back row spot along with former Saint James Bentley and James McDonnell - the man at the centre of the controversy over the punch that never was which saw him red carded on the Rhinos’ last visit. It’s all Jameses in the back row with this lot. Except for loose forward Cameron Smith who is not without his fair share of namesakes either.
In the front row England man Mikolaj Oledzki and Wigan-bound Sam Walters flank Jarrod O’Connor at hooker.
Without Newman Rhyse Martin is likely to slot into the centre alongside former Leigh man Nene McDonald. Derrell Olpherts is currently on the outside looking in as David Fusitu’a and Ash Handley occupy the wings. Blake Austin and Aidan Sezer haven’t always been available to Smith but they are for this one, so look for Ritchie Myler to operate at fullback.
Forwards Sam Lisone, Justin Sangare and Tom Holroyd are among those looking for a chance to make an impact from the bench.
This is already the third meeting between these two in 2023. In March the Rhinos got Saints’ home campaign off to a disappointing start. Having pipped NRL repeat champions Penrith by the odd point in 25 the newly crowned world champions went down 25-24 thanks to a late Austin drop-goal. It was a game Saints seemed to have in hand until they didn’t. Saints have dominated many games this year without finding the firepower to finish teams off. It has cost Wellens’ side at times and this was a classic of the genre.
In May Saints returned the favour in a lower scoring, more fiery encounter. Dodd came up with the winning point in a 13-12 success after tries from Makinson and Sironen.
Looking slightly further back it is easy to forget that this is a repeat of last season’s Grand Final. Having lost to the Rhinos at Old Trafford in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011 Saints finally got the monkey off their backs with a 24-12 win. Lees, Hurrell, Bennison and Percival all crossed for Saints, Makinson adding four goals to seal that fourth consecutive title. Ten of Saints’ 17 on duty that night could feature here despite the changes forced on Wellens, while Smith also has 10 of his Grand Final selection at his disposal.
Wellens’ selection will be interesting, especially in the second row where his preferred combinations have been ripped away. That may be a key area where the Rhinos will feel they can get the better of their hosts. A lot will also depend on how well Delaney and possibly Norman or even Knowles go in relief of Saints’ missing props. Mbye looks the only serviceable back-up to Roby at nine and is set to play a key role. Saints have started to address this problem for next year with the signing of Daryl Clark from Warrington but for the rest of 2023 the burden is all on a 37 year-old in his 20th season and a Jack of all trades who has flown half way around the world this week.
I have to say I have my doubts about this one. Which is probably a good thing given my record as a tipster. It’s just hard to see a Saints team which has suffered from fluctuating form as it is and which has an attack which is currently anaemic, being able to compensate for all the losses it has suffered in the pack. Let’s hope I’m off the mark here but Leeds by 6.
Squads;
Saints;
1.Jack Welsby, 2. Tommy Makinson, 3. Will Hopoate, 4. Mark Percival, 6. Jonny Lomax, 7. Lewis Dodd, 9. James Roby, 10. Matty Lees, 13. Morgan Knowles, 19. James Bell, 20. Dan Norman, 21. Ben Davies, 22. Sam Royle, 23. Konrad Hurrell, 24. Lewis Baxter, 25. Tee Ritson, 28. Matthew Foster, 29. Taylor Pemberton, 30. George Delaney, 34. Wesley Bruines, 35. Moses Mbye.
Leeds Rhinos:
1 Richie Myler 2 David Fusitu'a 4 Nene Macdonald 5 Ash Handley 6 Blake Austin 7 Aidan Sezer 8 Mikolaj Oledzki 11 James Bentley 12 Rhyse Martin 13 Cameron Smith 14 Jarrod O’Connor 15 Sam Lisone 17 Justin Sangare 18 Tom Holroyd 19 James McDonnell 21 Luke Hooley 22 Sam Walters 24 Luis Roberts 25 James Donaldson 26 Corey Johnson 31 Leon Ruan
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