Saints v Warrington - Playoff Eliminator Preview

The dress rehearsals are over.  It’s time for the real business to get under way.  Saints begin what in boxing terms would be considered their fourth title defence when they host Warrington Wolves this Saturday afternoon (September 30, kick-off 12.45pm).

Oh alright, I can’t fool you.  You know that I do not consider the entire eight-month regular season to be nothing but a dress rehearsal for the main event.  But this is That Saints Blog, and the identity of the team finishing top of the table in 2023 dictates that the whole regular season be considered a dress rehearsal for something infinitely more important. 

By virtue of points difference the champions have been left out in the cold somewhat.  Only the top two during the regular season enjoy the week off and the prospect of a home semi-final.  Third place - even if it is only third by what Ian Smith once memorably described as the barest of margins - brings with it an extra playoff round – albeit at home – the prize for which is an away trip to one of the top two for a place in the Grand Final. 

For Saints that means the south of France, Perpignan and Catalans Dragons. Standing in the way of that meeting are premature ejaculators Warrington, who won the league at Easter but still somehow managed to end up sixth by September. 

Saints boss Paul Wellens has possibly as strong a squad available as at any time during the 2023 campaign. Only Agnatius Paasi and George Delaney stand out as absentees who could be fairly confident of a place in the 17 if everybody was fit. Paasi has not recovered quite as quickly as Alex Walmsley from the grubbery of Leigh Leopards’ John Asiata while Delaney picked up a one-match ban for a high shot in last week’s win over Hull FC.

This reasonably unsoiled level of availability leaves Wellens with a few more selection decisions to make than he has perhaps been afforded for much of his debut year in charge. James Bell is returning from illness which kept him out against Tony Smith’s side and it seems certain that a place will be found for him. It may be that he slots straight into Delaney’s bench spot given that the back row is suitably stacked with Curtis Sironen, Joe Batchelor and Morgan Knowles all present. Should Wellens decide that Walmsley is ready to start after his surprise return last week then one of those back rowers or even Sione Mata’utia may find themselves starting on the bench too. 

The interchange options should also include Moses Mbye and Louie McCarthy-Scarsbrook. The Londoner - described not that unfairly by your writer as the Phil Neville of rugby league on That Saints Pod this week - is in the James Roby boat in as far as he is one defeat away from the end of a long career of medal collection. Both are playing their last home game for the club come what may. Which is just about where the comparison between the two should begin and end. But we thank them both equally for their service. Roby should start game 550 of his astonishing career in a front row featuring Matty Lees and either Walmsley or Mata’utia.

Turning to the backs it’s difficult to envisage changes. Jack Welsby is Saints’ most destructive attacking weapon from fullback. The one capable of doing something outrageously brilliant in a team which otherwise aims only to wear opponents down until weight of possession and territory causes the battered and quite possibly bored to death opponent to collapse under the strain. And if any team has form for collapsing under the strain it is Wire. 

Will Hopoate is another on the tightrope on which defeat would seal his Saints exit. Yet unlike the aforementioned Roby and McCarthy-Scarsbrook who have amassed 920 first team appearances between them, a loss in this one would end the Tongan’s Saints journey at a modest 30 matches. Not that his future is being taken into account by Wellens who seems certain to select the ex-Canterbury Bulldog ahead of Jon Bennison while he still can. 

Twenty-try Tommy Makinson is still arguably the best all round winger in Super League and looks an immovable object on the right flank. Konrad Hurrell and Mark Percival occupy the centre slots with Ben Davies named in the 21 as backup filed under solid if unspectacular. Jonny Lomax and Lewis Dodd have occupied the halfback positions in every Super League game in 2023 and there is no earthly reason to believe that they will not do so again.

On the subject of halfbacks Warrington fans will be heartened by the presence of George Williams in the 21-man party picked by interim head coach Gary Chambers. The ex-Wigan and Canberra man missed the clash between these two a fortnight ago due to a thigh problem but returned for the win over Huddersfield Giants which finally booked Wire’s place in the post season action. 

Williams is a genuine superstar of the sport, recently named England captain by Baron Greenback Shaun Wane and not that far removed from his spell spent ripping it up in the NRL with the Raiders. His problem is he can’t get the staff around him consistently. 

The Help is further diminished by the absence of prop Paul Vaughan. The ex-St George-Illawarra Dragon and Canterbury Bulldog was hit with a four-game ban for trying to help a blatantly time wasting Mata’utia to his feet in the dying embers of Saints’ 18-6 win at the Halliwell Jones two weeks ago. 

Despite the outrage and games-gone-ery of those who would rather we do without disciplinary action it was decreed that rules is rules and that there was precedent. That precedent ironically involved Mata’utia who sat out three games in July of last year for offering similar assistance to Danny Levi in a match against Ian Watson’s Huddersfield Giants which Saints won 25-0 despite being down to 12 men after Mata’utia’s dismissal. Trust the process. 

The loss of Vaughan could be huge for Wire. It could not be more ill-timed than to coincide with the resurfacing of Walmsley for Saints. Before his suspension Vaughan was Super League’s top metre maker. Despite having to sit out that final regular season round win over the Giants Vaughan still finished third in that category behind Catalans winger Tom Johnstone and Leigh prop Tom Amone. 

Few Wolves fans are likely have their anxieties over Vaughan’s absence soothed by the return of Gil Dudson to the ranks. The former Wigan and Catalans penalty dispenser is back in Chambers’ 21 after a hamstring injury but will do well to see action ahead of James Harrison, Thomas Mikaele or Joe Philbin. Heck, Chambers would be better off picking Sam Kasiano or Joe Bullock. 

The man all writers worth their salt are currently required to refer to as Saints-bound Daryl Clark will get one last crack at his new employers while wearing the primrose and blue but will likely share time at dummy half with Danny Walker. Don’t worry Wire fans, Brad Dwyer is on the way. In the back row Ben Currie continues his attempts to return to 2017 form alongside Matty Peet heartbreaker Matty Nicholson. Philbin or Bullock may lock the scrum if Chambers decides to try and combat Saints’ size in the pack although Jordy Crowther will also hope for an opportunity.

If Williams is to fire he will need what supporting cast he has in the back division to show up. That starts with fullback Matt Dufty, blessed with all of the pace in the world and none of the poise. Josh Thewlis is out injured which should offer another chance to Matty Russell while on the other wing audible sighs of relief could be heard from Burtonwood to Penketh when news emerged that Matty Ashton has recovered from illness. If you are going to beat Saints then one of the best ways to do it is to exploit their lack of pace in the backs.

More worrying for Wire fans is the possible involvement of Peter Mata’utia before his likely reunion with Daryl Powell at Wakefield for their 2024 tilt at being promoted from the Championship without the intervention of IMG. To paraphrase former England cricketer Jimmy Ormond’s infamous sledging of Australian Test batsman Mark Waugh, Peter Mata’utia isn’t even the best player in his family. 

Greg Minikin and Stef Ratchford are among the other options for Warrington in the centres which goes a long way to explaining why Williams is in danger of sinking in the swamp that is his side’s human resources issue. Even his halfback partner Josh Drinkwater has gone decidedly off the boil after being one of the keys to Warrington’s fast start to 2023,

Saints’ win at Warrington on September 15 was their third over the Wolves in the crazy, loop fixtured world of 2023. Wellens’ side were comfortable 28-6 winners at home in April although things were somewhat tighter in Warrington in early July when the visitors prevailed by just the one score at 24-20. 

The pair haven’t met in the playoffs since 2018 when it was Warrington who emerged with an 18-13 semi-final win on Saintly soil. The Wolves went on to lose to Wigan in the Grand Final, natch. Saints had topped the table that year by a preposterous 10 points in a 23-game regular season under former coach Justin Holbrook. Yet a side containing Ben Barba (tools virtually down by that point it should be said), Luke Thompson and Regan Grace were edged by two Tom Lineham tries and another by Jack Hughes. 

The fact that Wire went on to beat Saints 18-4 in the following year’s Challenge Cup final and 20-18 in a 2020 quarter-final of the same competition is making some fans a little tetchy. McCarthy-Scarsbrook was on the bench for all three of those knockout football defeats as well. Just saying…

What I’m also saying is that I don’t expect a repeat of those disappointments. Wire look for all the world like a team whose race was run some time ago. They have crawled into the playoffs by virtue of that fast start. But that was March, a time when an audio deficient, 20-minute version of Match Of The Day was actually broadcast and I was hallucinating from the Royal Liverpool HDU about life size models of Jurgen Klopp suspended from the walls in a huge net. Things were different then. 

Saints’ attacking conservatism may keep Warrington in it for a good chunk of proceedings but by the 80th minute the world champions should be a couple of scores to the good.

Saints;

1. Jack Welsby, 2. Tommy Makinson, 3. Will Hopoate, 4. Mark Percival, 5. Jon Bennison, 6. Jonny Lomax, 7. Lewis Dodd, 8. Alex Walmsley, 9. James Roby, 10. Matty Lees, 11. Sione Mata’utia, 12. Joe Batchelor, 13. Morgan Knowles, 15. Louie McCarthy-Scarsbrook, 16. Curtis Sironen, 19. James Bell, 20. Dan Norman, 21. Ben Davies, 22. Sam Royle, 23. Konrad Hurrell, 35. Moses Mbye.

Warrington Wolves;

1. Matty Dufty, 3. Peter Mata’utia 4. Stefan Ratchford 5. Matty Ashton 6. George Williams 7. Josh Drinkwater 8. James Harrison. 9. Daryl Clark. 11. Ben Currie 12. Matty Nicholson. 14. Sam Kasiano 15. Joe Philbin 16. Danny Walker 17. Gil Dudson 18. Thomas Mikaele. 19. Joe Bullock. 20. Connor Wrench. 21. Greg Minikin. 25. Leon Hayes. 34. Matty Russell 36. Jordy Crowther

Referee: Ben Thaler 

Saints 30 Hull FC 12 - Review

In the end - and as many of us had feared - this fairly routine victory over Tony Smith’s Hull FC side was not enough to get Saints into a top two spot. 

Paul Wellens’ side have to settle for third place in the regular season table. That means an extra playoff round instead of a week off. If the champions come through that they then face the prospect of a semi-final away in Perpignan against Catalans Dragons. And perhaps worst of all - whether you care about it or not -  Friday’s results (September 22) have decreed that Wigan have won something meaningful again. And nobody wants that.

No such concerns for Hull FC whose playoff hopes were extinguished once and for all when they took a 52-20 home larruping by Huddersfield a week ago.  Nor were the black and whites involved in the relegation battle. Despite a classically Hull FC season of inconsistency which must drive their fans quite mad they still finished 12 points clear of the drop thanks to the stunning ineptitude of Wakefield Trinity and Castleford Tigers for most of the campaign. Nevertheless a 10th placed finish is unlikely to be what Smith signed up for. Expect changes for 2024 if Mr Pearson holds his nerve next time Jenna shoves a mic under his nose.

Optimists among the Saints fan base might have been excitedly waiting for a favour from either Leigh at home to Wigan or Salford who welcomed the Dragons to the AJ Bell while this one was playing out. Yet  realistically the most exciting thing about this match-up for those of a red vee persuasion pre-game was the surprise return to action of Alex Walmsley. The talismanic prop had apparently been ruled out for the rest of the season after John Asiata’s tin man hearted assault on his lower limbs in Saints’ Challenge Cup semi-final defeat to the Leopards in July. Yet here he was lurking on the bench in one of the most spectacular recoveries since Daniel Laruso’s crane kick in The Karate Kid. 

Wellens’ decision to introduce his surprise trump card from the bench meant that Sione Mata’utia continued at prop with Curtis Sironen again available to partner Joe Batchelor in the second row. James Bell was out with illness so George Delaney joined Walmsley, Louie McCarthy-Scarsbrook and Moses Mbye among the interchanges.

One of 11 men set to depart the club at the end of the year along with McCarthy-Scarsbrook and sporting legend James Roby, Will Hopoate nevertheless got the nod to start on the left wing ahead of the unfortunate Jon Bennison. The latter had started the last five during Hopoate’s most recent spell of inactivity but is in real danger of missing out on the playoff series to come given Wellens’ preference for the Tongan whenever he is fit.  Saints’ other Tongan three-quarter - Konrad Hurrell - also returned for only his second appearance in the last eight. That left no place for Ben Davies who had been filling in at centre during that run.

FC need change urgently and Smith fielded several players who will be elsewhere next term. Jake Clifford’s star has shone brightly at times in his only campaign on Humberside. Sufficiently to earn himself a return to the NRL with North Queensland Cowboys for next year. Chris Satae will be among Steve McNamara’s front row options at the Dragons in 2024 while hooker Brad Dwyer - in for Danny Houghton for this clash - is hopping back to Warrington to replace Saints-bound Daryl Clark. Former Wigan Grand Final winner Scott Taylor is retiring. 

There was no Adam Swift in the FC line-up so an opportunity arose for 19 year-old Hull-born Lewis Pearson. Carlos Tuimavave returned in the centres replacing Liam Sutcliffe. 

Those of you who aren’t as fussy as I about your rugby codes might have sat through what must have been an extraordinarily turgid 80 minutes in which England’s rugby union team scored 27 points without scoring a try in the World Cup match with Argentina. If you are here for that sort of thing then you might not have minded the decision to go for two points inside the first 10 minutes when Morgan Knowles was obstructed off the ball by Satae. 

Mark Percival’s goal-kicking has improved immeasurably over the course of the season which is a credit to him and his work ethic and determination. Yet I’m not sure it justifies taking the ultra conservative route so early in a game at home to an opponent which is 10th out of 12 in the competition, has nothing to play for and should really be fodder to the world champions. 

Percival was involved in some much more exciting fare midway through the first half when he crossed for his ninth Super League try of the season. He was there to cut inside Tex Hoy and finish off a move which had involved James Roby, Lewis Dodd and Sironen. Percival had created the opportunity when he made a 30m burst from deep in his own half to set his side up in some attacking field position. He converted his own effort to push Saints out to an 8-0 lead. 

It was around the 25-minute mark that Walmsley was unleashed by Wellens. The expectations of many Saints fans might have been lower than usual for a player who hadn’t featured for almost nine weeks but his stat line is ominously impressive for those who may have the job of stopping him over the coming weeks. He ran for 113 metres on 12 carries at an average of over 10 metres a clip. Given the paucity of 100 metre makers in the Saints pack in his absence - Mata’utia has been carrying the load for the most part - the fact that Walmsley has settled straight back into the habit could be crucial. The ex-Batley man also made 20 tackles and a couple of tackle busts. He gets the side down the field like nobody else on the team sheet which - taking into account the limitations of the Saints attack this term - is potentially huge.

Yet even with the territorial advantages afforded to them by Walmsley Saints are going to have to be more clinical than they were here. There were a series of misfires while in possession in good areas. Jack Welsby would remind us of his class late on but he helped squander his side’s next genuine scoring opportunity when his attempt to find Tommy Makinson 25 metres out only found touch after the fullback had been set free by a beautiful inside ball by Jonny Lomax. 

Welsby erred again shortly after when - having supported a Batchelor break he took the former York man’s pass the remaining 30 metres to the try line before being brought down just short. He was then unable to resist a second go at putting the ball over the line and was whistled for a double movement by referee Ben Thaler. 

It wasn’t only Welsby. Makinson allowed himself to be bundled into touch short of the line by a combination of Dwyer and Satae. The England winger looked a bit too keen to go for one of his trademark flying finishes when he may have been better served to step back inside as the covering defenders hared across to intervene. 

Even Percival wasn’t immune. He was freed on the left edge by Hopoate but managed to choose the wrong option, opting to pass on his inside where a Hull hand waited to deflect it before recovering it five metres from their own line.

The visitors ended the first half in the ascendancy. Dwyer earned a great attacking opportunity for his side with his one and only 40/20 of the season. Then again nobody has more than the four executed by Blake Austin and Jake Connor in 2023. Sam Powell (really) and Warrington’s Danny Walker are the only hookers to pull off more than one. Both have two.

Dwyer’s effort didn’t yield a try. Smith’s men had time for a full set of six in the Saints red zone and forced a dropout when Hurrell scrambled to knock a Hoy grubber kick dead. There was no time for the restart and so Saints went for the mid-game briefing from Wellens with a lead of eight Percival points to nothing, 

The next score after the recess was always going to be pivotal and it was Saints who grabbed it through Dodd. The halfback won the race to touch down Lomax’s searching low nudge into the in-goal. Those in the West Stand would have had the best view to determine whether Dodd grounded it before it crossed the dead ball line and with no video replays available Thaler decided that the try was a fair one. Video referees will be in action at every Super League game from 2024 as the IMG revolution draws ever nearer. Whether replays would have confirmed or denied Dodd’s effort it has always seemed quite insane to have two or three games in each Super League round effectively played under different rules to the remainder since 1996. 

For now it was his eighth try of the season. If that sounds a reasonable return given that it is only one behind the tally of a genuine strike player like Percival it should be remembered that Dodd has been an ever present in Saints’ 27 regular season games while Percival has played eight fewer at 19. Percival was on hand to slot over the extras from virtually in front of the sticks to put Saints in a commanding position at 14-0.

Hull really needed some inspiration and despite the futility of their overall predicament in the grand scheme of things in 2023 they found it. Jordan Lane made a rare foray into hallowed territory before handing it on to Martin to do the rest. Hoy was unfazed by the task of converting the score and duly brought FC back within eight points at 14-6 with what looked an effortless extra two from the touchline. 

Saints were still making errors. They should have added to the lead when Lomax exchanged passes with Batchelor but managed to fail to link up with Makinson with the final pass inside the FC 10 metre line. It was most out of character for the Saints stand-off who has ended the regular season with 20 assists. Only Welsby has more among the Saints ranks. Yet if you’re going to butcher a perfectly presentable scoring chance then the best course of action is probably to score one yourself to all but put the game into its metaphorical big, comfy four-poster. 

When it came it wasn’t in the customary Lomax style. Instead he barrelled through three end of season efforts from the Hull defence to score his 11th try in the league in 2023. Again that is just a step behind Welsby’s tally of 12. It took him past the fullback at the time as Welsby was still keeping his late magic tricks firmly up his sleeve. Twenty-three league tries between your fullback and your stand-off isn’t a disaster but it possibly says much about the Saints attack overall that there is nobody between them and the club’s top meat pie collector Makinson who managed 20. 

What it did provide was another routine two points for Percival from the conversion and the matter was virtually settled at 20-6. It should also be noted that the chance to bully your way past this level of non-defence as easily as Lomax was able to is probably not something that will be all that commonly offered at playoff time. You’d expect the intensity to ramp up just a little bit. 

And so this is where the incomparable Welsby takes over the story. For better and a little bit of worse it would be fair to point out. I say incomparable…he did have a faint whiff of Connor about him at times but when the good stuff came it was way beyond anything we have seen from the snake in recent times. 

Four minutes after Lomax’s effort Welsby scored the first of his two tries to eliminate any doubt there might have been. Mbye was the creator, by now having taken over number nine duties from Roby. The ex-Canterbury Bulldog and Wests Tiger shot out from dummy half and went about 30 metres untouched before finding Knowles on his inside. He maintained his composure to feed Welsby for the finish. Percival was presented with another straightforward two points from the conversion and Saints were finally out of sight.

At which point the downside you often get with any great risk taking playmaker reared its less than pretty head. Planning another raid on the FC line Welsby and his teammates ended up looking to the other end of the field as his pass out wide towards the right edge was plucked out of the air by Cameron Scott. He took it all the way for just his seventh four-pointer of another frustratingly run of the mill FC campaign. Hoy’s second goal of the night reduced the arrears to 14 at 26-12 but Saints and Welsby weren’t quite done.

The final try of the night was all about Welsby. Taking possession from inside his own 30m he burst away from a flagging and by this point gassed Hull defence and just kept on going. And going. And going. FC defenders flapped and flailed around him without ever seriously threatening to bring him down. Perhaps because of his slightly stooped gait Welsby has a deceptive amount of pace allied with some more recently acquired Super League strength. Those who did get a hand on him were easily shrugged off on his way to creating this final masterpiece. This is the sort of try that is the reason that leaving early when players like Welsby are still on the field seems like folly to me. The kind of try that had it been scored by Bevan French or Jai Field would have been talked about until Warrington win a Grand Final. 

Dodd took over the kicking duties but couldn’t land it from the right sideline meaning the champions had to settle for an 18-point win by 30-12 and third place as Oliver Gildart’s controversially disallowed try at Leigh saw Wigan hang on for a 10-6 victory while Catalans held off the challenge of Salford. Consequently the Red Devils missed out on the top six and kept the Wire dream alive,

Meanwhile Welsby’s performance is just one of the many which have earned him selection to the Super League Dream Team recently. He has claimed the fullback role ahead not only of the much trumpeted Connor - whose year would be flatteringly described by the word ‘average’ - but even Field. Welsby is the sole Saints representative in a XIII which includes five players from the Leigh side which ended up finishing fifth and faces a tricky playoff trip to Hull KR to keep their season alive. 

That league position is way above the expectations for a promoted side - as was winning the Challenge Cup for the first time in 52 years - but does it really justify the inclusion of so many when there were four teams more consistent than the Leopards this term? At the very least the name of Asiata should have been scratched the moment he decided to start targeting the knee joints of fellow professionals.

Back to Hull, who do emerge with some silverware from their 2023 mediocrity. Although Saints have won two of the three league meetings between the sides (there was a fourth in the Challenge Cup) it is the Humbersiders who take the Steve Prescott Cup on aggregate. That’s mostly down to a 34-6 pasting which Saints took in Hull in June just days after the cup quarter-final. This 12-point Saints win added to the eight-point margin achieved in the 20-12 home victory in March were not quite enough to repair the damage of the champions worst performance of the year.  

Looking at the stats from this latest encounter it’s again Welsby who stands out among the Saints contingent. He ran for 217 metres to add to his two tries and had no fewer than 13 tackle busts. About half of those seemed to be accrued on that miraculous journey to the Hull line which ended proceedings. 

After Welsby Saints’ next best ground gainer was Percival with 141. Tongan pair Hopoate and Hurrell racked up 124 and 120 respectively, while Knowles was just a metre ahead of Walmsley on 114. Hull’s best, and only centurion was Scott with an impressive 158.

Just two Saints were required to top 30 tackles. Batchelor led the way with 32 while Roby - playing his last ever regular season game - churned out another 30. For FC the standout was mullet and tash sporting Brad Fash with 45. Dwyer contributed a further 36. 

In terms of the regular season’s overall stat leaders Makinson was Saints’ top try scorer with his 20, a tally good enough for fourth across the league behind only Tom Johnstone, Abbas Miski and Josh Charnley. Welsby’s two late scores in this one took him to 12 which left him in a tie for 16th. But he is so much more than a try scorer.

Matty Lees is the only Saint in the top 20 tacklers for 2023. His 790 efforts place him 12th in the division. Yet when you consider that only Wigan conceded fewer points than Saints in the weekly rounds you get an idea of how well Wellens’ outfit defends as a team. For the record Wattoball poster boy Luke Yates was the only man to make over 1,000 stops in 2023. Morgan Smithies’ third man in shithousery was only good enough for fourth on 972. 

Lees is 10th on the list of botched tackles with 81, with Lomax a place behind on 79. Bell is a surprising fourth on the list with 90 but then those who go looking for enough defensive work are going to butcher their fair share. Nobody missed more than the 101 attempts fluffed by Wakefield Trinity’s Jacob Miller. The ex-Castleford half is the only century man in this category.

Welsby features high on the assist list with 27, but that’s still three behind the 30 managed by Wigan reserves star French. Lomax’s 20 see him sneak inside the top 10. Connor? A modest 14 and 17th place on the chart. Saintly Jack is also seventh on the error count with 33 mishaps but - as with tackling - there is a direct correlation between the amount of mistakes a player makes and the amount of involvements he has.  Welsby is still a way behind league leader and scissor-mitted ex-Wigan flyer Joe Burgess who endured 45 cases of the dropsies. 

Another Salford man takes the title of 2023 penalty machine. Copy and paste’s King Vuniyayawa has been whistled for 25 offences this time around. The worst offending Saint is Lees who is 12th on the list with 14 infringements. There is also a slightly surprising appearance in the top 20 by Percival who has felt the wrath of Kendall, Moore (x2), Smith, Griffiths, Thaler and co on 12 occasions.

The regular season may be consigned to history - and let’s please do that given the identity of the League Leaders Shield winners - but the business of crowning the universally recognised champions starts this weekend. Having missed out on the top two Saints’ route to stepping on the turf occasionally trodden on by Harry Maguire starts with the visit of Easter champions Warrington. 

The teams met in Cheshire only a fortnight ago with Saints coming out on top 18-6 thanks to tries from Sironen, Percival and Mbye. There has been plenty of dark muttering about Saints’ inability to beat Wire in knockout football in recent years but if current form is a stronger barometer then the home side must go in as favourites. Wellens’ men are on a run of nine consecutive league wins while the Wolves’ win over Huddersfield which secured their top six spot was only their third over the same period. And it was against a team with nothing to play for sticking doggedly to Wattoball so scarcely even counts.

George Williams was absent from that game two weeks ago and will no doubt make a difference but his presence for most of 2023 hasn’t been enough to halt Warrington’s slide from their early season prominence. It probably won’t save them this week either. But just in case, remember to savour every moment spent on the field by Roby whose illustrious career will end abruptly and slightly prematurely the next time Saints lose. Or it will end with another Grand Final ring. Whichever happens first. If it is the latter it will be his seventh.

If the Warrington hurdle seems perfectly negotiable things get more complex thereafter. To reach a fifth consecutive Grand Final Saints will have to win in Perpignan against the Dragons. The French side have won both meetings between the sides in 2023, edging out Saints 14-12 on this side of the channel after winning 24-12 in France in May. It’s likely to be a close call.

Strap yourselves in.

Saints: Welsby, Makinson, Hurrell, Percival, Hopoate, Lomax, Dodd, Mata’utia , Roby, Lees, Sironen, Batchelor, Knowles. Interchanges: Walmsley, McCarthy-Scarsbrook, Delaney, Mbye.

Hull FC: Litten, McIntosh, Tuimavave, Scott, Martin, Hoy, Clifford, Satae, Dwyer, Taylor, Lane, Fash, Cator. Interchanges: Brown, Gardiner, Jebson, Lovodua

Referee: Ben Thaler 

Saints v Hull FC - Preview

We’ll know more about Saints’ path to Old Trafford after they host Hull FC in the final round of the regular season on Friday night (September 22, kick-off 8.00pm).

Paul Wellens’ side are still locked in a three-way tie at the top of the Super League table with only points difference keeping them behind Wigan and Catalans Dragons. The trouble is that the deficit to both in that category is fairly sizeable. It looks like the champions will need one of the other two to lose if they are to have any chance of securing the top two spot which brings with it a week off and a home semi-final. 

Saints could still conceivably finish top of the pile as they did last year but that prize probably only offers itself up if both Matty Peet and Steve McNamara’s teams suffer defeats to Leigh Leopards and Salford Red Devils respectively. Keeping that outcome within the realms of possibility is the fact that Leigh need to win to secure a home playoff in week 1 and Salford need a victory to potentially sneak in to the top six at the expense of Warrington.

Wellens’ hand has been strengthened - on paper at least - by the return of four of his 2023 regulars. The headline is the inclusion of Alex Walmsley, out since being Asiata-ed out of the Challenge Cup semi-final defeat to Leigh at the end of July. A matter of days later the England prop was ruled out for the rest of the season. Yet here he is - more than three weeks before the Grand Final - included in the 21 and poised to feature like any number of ‘ruled out’ Wigan superstars of the late 1980s and early 1990s. I do hope they spare us the unedifying sight of a pre-game ‘fitness test’ in front of those who file into the stadium early.

You would hope and believe that Wellens and his medical staff would not take a risk with one of Saints’ most treasured assets so we should probably take it at face value that the selection of Walmsley means that he is fit to play some part. Or it could be posturing and amateur psychology from Wellens, choosing the eve of the playoffs to show potential title rivals what horse power he has parked in the garage just waiting to be thrust into gear.

Whether Walmsley features or not there should be others coming back into the line-up after recovering from less serious concerns. Konrad Hurrell returned from a troublesome calf injury in the win at Wakefield on September 3 only to suffer a recurrence and be forced to miss the wins over Leigh and Warrington. The Tongan centre is named and could be just as much of a key as Walmsley as he offers balance to a three-quarter line which has underwhelmed as an attacking force in recent weeks. If he does play it is likely to be in place of Ben Davies although Wellens may again choose to switch Mark Percival to Davies’ left centre role and team Hurrell up with Tommy Makinson on the right. 

Another option in the three-quarters is Will Hopoate. Hurrell’s compatriot has not featured for Saints since the visit of Leeds Rhinos on July 28. He played at centre that night with Percival absent but you get the feeling that if he is going to make the side for this one it might be on the wing with Jon Bennison potentially missing out. Wellens has shown a liking for including Hopoate when he has been available particularly as a winger where he has operated on six occasions this term. He can also fill in at fullback but since Jack Welsby looks like Saints’ main source of creativity at the moment we can probably rule that out.

Completing the recalled foursome is George Delaney. The 19 year-old missed the trip to Warrington having picked up a head knock in the Leigh game a week earlier. To that point he had started the previous six at prop following Walmsley’s injury. Even if Walmsley makes the 17 there should still be room in it for Delaney in the front row rotation along with Matty Lees and Louie McCarthy-Scarsbrook. Led by skipper James Roby in what is expected to be his final regular season game for his home town club, the front row will be crucial in laying the groundwork to allow halfback partners Jonny Lomax and Lewis Dodd to help Welsby pick holes in the FC defence. Of which there have been plenty recently.

The return last week of Curtis Sironen persuaded Wellens to move Sione Mata’utia to prop to allow Morgan Knowles to revert to loose forward. With Walmsley and Delaney back in contention we should see Mata’utia slip back among the second row options. Mata’utia has been Saints’ most progressive forward since Walmsley went down so on form it should be a matter of which of Sironen or Joe Batchelor joins him from the start and who takes a seat on the bench. Whoever does may also have McCarthy-Scarsbrook, James Bell and Moses Mbye for company. 

Playoff permutations are not a consideration for Hull FC after another season of underachievement. The black and whites seem to start every year with what looks like a squad more than good enough to make the top six only to flatter to deceive and miss out. They haven’t made the knockout stage of the season since 2017 when they were edged out 18-16 in the semi-finals by eventual champions Leeds Rhinos. That’s how long ago it was. Leeds Rhinos were good.

The arrival of decorated head coach Tony Smith hasn’t had the effect on FC that I thought it might. They sit 10th out of 12 in the table this year having won just 10 of their 26 league outings to this point. They cannot finish any lower than that but they cannot go any higher than eighth, so motivation might be an issue. When is it not where FC are concerned? 

They come to the home of the world champions on a five-game losing streak having been battered 52-20 by the equally disinterested Huddersfield Giants a week ago. It’s a run which has also seen them lose 29-12 to the worst Castleford team in many years as well as aforementioned basket case Leeds and even free falling Warrington. Their last performance of any note came in mid-August when they were edged out 13-12 by Wigan. Their last win came a week before that, but it was against a Wakefield side which has only won four games this season and which has been relegated to the Championship until such time as IMG deem it acceptable to bring them back. 

Despite the shellacking taken at home to the Giants Smith has made only two changes to his 21-man party. Carlos Tuimavave returns from concussion protocols and replaces Liam Sutcliffe while veteran hooker Danny Houghton misses out also. His place is taken by young back rower Zach Jebson. 

Jacob Trueman is among the absentees through injury so we should see Tex Hoy move up to the halves alongside Jake Clifford. Much was expected of Hoy after his arrival from Newcastle Knights but he has managed only 14 appearance in a stop-start debut season on Humberside. Clifford was talked up as the form halfback in the competition in the early going but he too has seen his campaign peter out in line with that of the team after it was announced that he will return to the North Queensland Cowboys in the NRL for 2024. 

Adam Swift - who scored 86 tries in 130 appearances for Saints between 2012 and 2019 and was part of the Grand Final winning team of 2014 - has been a beacon of light for Hull, managing 19 tries so far in 2023. Only six players have crossed the whitewash more often this term. The winger is another who will leave FC at the end of the season having signed a deal with the Giants. You know it’s bad when your most prolific attacking weapon would rather be part of Ian Watson’s process.

Up front FC are without not only Houghton but also Ligi Sao. Scott Taylor will hope to feature in his last ever professional game having decided to retire. Chris Satae, Andre Savelio, Joe Lovodua and Brad Dwyer are all bidding their farewells too as they move on to other clubs. It’s a time of real change for FC as Smith tries to find the right combinations in his quest to make the side competitive again. In for 2024 will come Herman Ese’ese from the Dolphins as well as Jayden Okunbor and Franklin Pele from Canterbury Bulldogs. You’d be forgiven for rolling your eyes at this point and feeling like you’ve seen it all before.

Thanks to the ongoing blemish that is loop fixtures this will be the third league meeting between the sides. It’s also the final leg of the Steve Prescott Cup, played annually with the aggregate score in league match-ups determining the winners. Saints go in with a 20-point deficit having won 20-12 at home in March but suffered a 34-6 hammering in the return in June. Almost certainly the red vee’s worst performance of 2023 to date. That came just days after a feisty Challenge Cup quarter-final in which Saints prevailed 32-18.

In another life Hull have reached a Grand Final and it was Saints who provided the opposition. Saints won 26-4 in 2006 with tries from Ade Gardner, Willie Talau, Leon Pryce, Francis Meli and Keiron Cunningham. Two years later Saints beat Hull at Wembley in the Challenge Cup final, their third triumph in a row under Daniel Anderson. Meli grabbed a double that day and there was another from Pryce with Jon Wilkin also crossing in a 28-16 success.

It’s hard to see anything other than a routine Saints win in this one. That may or may not be enough to win the Steve Prescott Cup but they are going to need a favour from elsewhere to sneak into that top two and avoid playing an extra playoff round and a potential semi-final at either Wigan or in Perpignan. 

Squads;

Saints;

1. Jack Welsby, 2. Tommy Makinson, 3. Will Hopoate, 4. Mark Percival, 5. Jon Bennison, 6. Jonny Lomax, 7. Lewis Dodd, 8. Alex Walmsley, 9. James Roby, 10. Matty Lees, 11. Sione Mata’utia, 12. Joe Batchelor, 13. Morgan Knowles, 15. Louie McCarthy-Scarsbrook, 16. Curtis Sironen, 19. James Bell, 21. Ben Davies, 22. Sam Royle, 23. Konrad Hurrell, 30. George Delaney, 35. Moses Mbye.

Hull FC;

1. Tex Hoy, 2. Adam Swift, 3. Carlos Tuimavave, 5. Darnell McIntosh, 7. Jake Clifford, 10. Chris Satae, 11. Andre Savelio, 12. Jordan Lane, 13. Brad Fash, 14. Joe Lovodua, 15. Joe Cator, 17. Cam Scott, 20. Jack Brown, 25. Davy Litten, 26. Harvey Barron, 27. Will Gardiner, 30. Scott Taylor, 31. Nick Staveley, 33. Brad Dwyer, 35. Lewis Martin, 37. Zach Jebson