We’ll know more about Saints’ path to Old Trafford after they host Hull FC in the final round of the regular season on Friday night (September 22, kick-off 8.00pm).
Paul Wellens’ side are still locked in a three-way tie at the top of the Super League table with only points difference keeping them behind Wigan and Catalans Dragons. The trouble is that the deficit to both in that category is fairly sizeable. It looks like the champions will need one of the other two to lose if they are to have any chance of securing the top two spot which brings with it a week off and a home semi-final.
Saints could still conceivably finish top of the pile as they did last year but that prize probably only offers itself up if both Matty Peet and Steve McNamara’s teams suffer defeats to Leigh Leopards and Salford Red Devils respectively. Keeping that outcome within the realms of possibility is the fact that Leigh need to win to secure a home playoff in week 1 and Salford need a victory to potentially sneak in to the top six at the expense of Warrington.
Wellens’ hand has been strengthened - on paper at least - by the return of four of his 2023 regulars. The headline is the inclusion of Alex Walmsley, out since being Asiata-ed out of the Challenge Cup semi-final defeat to Leigh at the end of July. A matter of days later the England prop was ruled out for the rest of the season. Yet here he is - more than three weeks before the Grand Final - included in the 21 and poised to feature like any number of ‘ruled out’ Wigan superstars of the late 1980s and early 1990s. I do hope they spare us the unedifying sight of a pre-game ‘fitness test’ in front of those who file into the stadium early.
You would hope and believe that Wellens and his medical staff would not take a risk with one of Saints’ most treasured assets so we should probably take it at face value that the selection of Walmsley means that he is fit to play some part. Or it could be posturing and amateur psychology from Wellens, choosing the eve of the playoffs to show potential title rivals what horse power he has parked in the garage just waiting to be thrust into gear.
Whether Walmsley features or not there should be others coming back into the line-up after recovering from less serious concerns. Konrad Hurrell returned from a troublesome calf injury in the win at Wakefield on September 3 only to suffer a recurrence and be forced to miss the wins over Leigh and Warrington. The Tongan centre is named and could be just as much of a key as Walmsley as he offers balance to a three-quarter line which has underwhelmed as an attacking force in recent weeks. If he does play it is likely to be in place of Ben Davies although Wellens may again choose to switch Mark Percival to Davies’ left centre role and team Hurrell up with Tommy Makinson on the right.
Another option in the three-quarters is Will Hopoate. Hurrell’s compatriot has not featured for Saints since the visit of Leeds Rhinos on July 28. He played at centre that night with Percival absent but you get the feeling that if he is going to make the side for this one it might be on the wing with Jon Bennison potentially missing out. Wellens has shown a liking for including Hopoate when he has been available particularly as a winger where he has operated on six occasions this term. He can also fill in at fullback but since Jack Welsby looks like Saints’ main source of creativity at the moment we can probably rule that out.
Completing the recalled foursome is George Delaney. The 19 year-old missed the trip to Warrington having picked up a head knock in the Leigh game a week earlier. To that point he had started the previous six at prop following Walmsley’s injury. Even if Walmsley makes the 17 there should still be room in it for Delaney in the front row rotation along with Matty Lees and Louie McCarthy-Scarsbrook. Led by skipper James Roby in what is expected to be his final regular season game for his home town club, the front row will be crucial in laying the groundwork to allow halfback partners Jonny Lomax and Lewis Dodd to help Welsby pick holes in the FC defence. Of which there have been plenty recently.
The return last week of Curtis Sironen persuaded Wellens to move Sione Mata’utia to prop to allow Morgan Knowles to revert to loose forward. With Walmsley and Delaney back in contention we should see Mata’utia slip back among the second row options. Mata’utia has been Saints’ most progressive forward since Walmsley went down so on form it should be a matter of which of Sironen or Joe Batchelor joins him from the start and who takes a seat on the bench. Whoever does may also have McCarthy-Scarsbrook, James Bell and Moses Mbye for company.
Playoff permutations are not a consideration for Hull FC after another season of underachievement. The black and whites seem to start every year with what looks like a squad more than good enough to make the top six only to flatter to deceive and miss out. They haven’t made the knockout stage of the season since 2017 when they were edged out 18-16 in the semi-finals by eventual champions Leeds Rhinos. That’s how long ago it was. Leeds Rhinos were good.
The arrival of decorated head coach Tony Smith hasn’t had the effect on FC that I thought it might. They sit 10th out of 12 in the table this year having won just 10 of their 26 league outings to this point. They cannot finish any lower than that but they cannot go any higher than eighth, so motivation might be an issue. When is it not where FC are concerned?
They come to the home of the world champions on a five-game losing streak having been battered 52-20 by the equally disinterested Huddersfield Giants a week ago. It’s a run which has also seen them lose 29-12 to the worst Castleford team in many years as well as aforementioned basket case Leeds and even free falling Warrington. Their last performance of any note came in mid-August when they were edged out 13-12 by Wigan. Their last win came a week before that, but it was against a Wakefield side which has only won four games this season and which has been relegated to the Championship until such time as IMG deem it acceptable to bring them back.
Despite the shellacking taken at home to the Giants Smith has made only two changes to his 21-man party. Carlos Tuimavave returns from concussion protocols and replaces Liam Sutcliffe while veteran hooker Danny Houghton misses out also. His place is taken by young back rower Zach Jebson.
Jacob Trueman is among the absentees through injury so we should see Tex Hoy move up to the halves alongside Jake Clifford. Much was expected of Hoy after his arrival from Newcastle Knights but he has managed only 14 appearance in a stop-start debut season on Humberside. Clifford was talked up as the form halfback in the competition in the early going but he too has seen his campaign peter out in line with that of the team after it was announced that he will return to the North Queensland Cowboys in the NRL for 2024.
Adam Swift - who scored 86 tries in 130 appearances for Saints between 2012 and 2019 and was part of the Grand Final winning team of 2014 - has been a beacon of light for Hull, managing 19 tries so far in 2023. Only six players have crossed the whitewash more often this term. The winger is another who will leave FC at the end of the season having signed a deal with the Giants. You know it’s bad when your most prolific attacking weapon would rather be part of Ian Watson’s process.
Up front FC are without not only Houghton but also Ligi Sao. Scott Taylor will hope to feature in his last ever professional game having decided to retire. Chris Satae, Andre Savelio, Joe Lovodua and Brad Dwyer are all bidding their farewells too as they move on to other clubs. It’s a time of real change for FC as Smith tries to find the right combinations in his quest to make the side competitive again. In for 2024 will come Herman Ese’ese from the Dolphins as well as Jayden Okunbor and Franklin Pele from Canterbury Bulldogs. You’d be forgiven for rolling your eyes at this point and feeling like you’ve seen it all before.
Thanks to the ongoing blemish that is loop fixtures this will be the third league meeting between the sides. It’s also the final leg of the Steve Prescott Cup, played annually with the aggregate score in league match-ups determining the winners. Saints go in with a 20-point deficit having won 20-12 at home in March but suffered a 34-6 hammering in the return in June. Almost certainly the red vee’s worst performance of 2023 to date. That came just days after a feisty Challenge Cup quarter-final in which Saints prevailed 32-18.
In another life Hull have reached a Grand Final and it was Saints who provided the opposition. Saints won 26-4 in 2006 with tries from Ade Gardner, Willie Talau, Leon Pryce, Francis Meli and Keiron Cunningham. Two years later Saints beat Hull at Wembley in the Challenge Cup final, their third triumph in a row under Daniel Anderson. Meli grabbed a double that day and there was another from Pryce with Jon Wilkin also crossing in a 28-16 success.
It’s hard to see anything other than a routine Saints win in this one. That may or may not be enough to win the Steve Prescott Cup but they are going to need a favour from elsewhere to sneak into that top two and avoid playing an extra playoff round and a potential semi-final at either Wigan or in Perpignan.
Squads;
Saints;
1. Jack Welsby, 2. Tommy Makinson, 3. Will Hopoate, 4. Mark Percival, 5. Jon Bennison, 6. Jonny Lomax, 7. Lewis Dodd, 8. Alex Walmsley, 9. James Roby, 10. Matty Lees, 11. Sione Mata’utia, 12. Joe Batchelor, 13. Morgan Knowles, 15. Louie McCarthy-Scarsbrook, 16. Curtis Sironen, 19. James Bell, 21. Ben Davies, 22. Sam Royle, 23. Konrad Hurrell, 30. George Delaney, 35. Moses Mbye.
Hull FC;
1. Tex Hoy, 2. Adam Swift, 3. Carlos Tuimavave, 5. Darnell McIntosh, 7. Jake Clifford, 10. Chris Satae, 11. Andre Savelio, 12. Jordan Lane, 13. Brad Fash, 14. Joe Lovodua, 15. Joe Cator, 17. Cam Scott, 20. Jack Brown, 25. Davy Litten, 26. Harvey Barron, 27. Will Gardiner, 30. Scott Taylor, 31. Nick Staveley, 33. Brad Dwyer, 35. Lewis Martin, 37. Zach Jebson
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