Just about showing signs of a pulse, Saints look to avoid the killer blow to their Super League Grand Final hopes when they visit Warrington Wolves in the playoff eliminator on Saturday night (September 28, kick-off 5.30pm).
Although they were beaten for a 12th time in 27 league outings last week - this time 18-12 at Leigh - Saints scraped into the top six to earn themselves the dubious pleasure of visiting Sam Burgess’ third-placed Wire. A solid if stupefyingly boring first half of the campaign saw Saints hanging out in and around the top two. Yet all hopes of finishing that high vanished in a fog of injuries and tedious tactics under second year Head Coach Paul Wellens. Sixth place was Saints’ worst finish for seven years.
Meanwhile Warrington kept up their top two challenge throughout before doing what they are famed for and just falling short. Hull KR’s last day win against Leeds Rhinos denied Wire who - like Saints last term - might yet find that missing out on a home semi-final proves costly. Though they’ll go in as favourites they’d probably admit that they’d rather not face an extra game before the semi-finals against a club which has a history pissing on their metaphorical chips throughout Super League.
Wellens is forced into one change from last week’s initial 21-man squad. Moses Mbye pulled out with a calf injury during the warm up at Leigh and has not recovered in time. On the plus side Alex Walmsley - who was also a late withdrawal at the LSV - has recovered from illness and should take his customary place in the front row alongside 2024 Super League Dream Team member Matty Lees. Unsurprisingly after something of a shit show of a season by recent standards, Lees is the only Saint to make it in to the all star selection.
Despite Mbye’s absence Saints still have decent options at hooker to complete that front row. Wellens has been keeping Daryl Clark on the bench since the ex-Warrington man returned from injury and must decide whether to do so again or else unleash him on his former colleagues from the outset. Jake Burns is the likely alternative. He has impressed at times since breaking through this year but neither he nor Clarke can boast Mbye’s kicking game. They do offer speed out of dummy half.
Curtis Sironen is not yet ready to return so there is unlikely to be a change in the second row. A position in which Saints looked stacked at the start of the year has looked flaky of late. Sione Mata’utia - who is one of three Saints for whom defeat would signal his final appearance for the club - has played the last two at centre as Wellens finally lost patience with Waqa Blake. The coach even allowed his bonkers blind faith in Ben Davies to fizzle out. Jonny Vaughan is another option as he returns to the 21 in place of Mbye. If it is to be Mata’utia continuing then the out of form pairing of Matt Whitley and Joe Batchelor will no doubt go again with Morgan Knowles at loose forward.
Knowles will be backed up on the bench by James Bell who is likely to be joined by one of Clark or Burns as well as any two of George Delaney, Agnatius Paasi and Noah Stephens.
In the backs there seems little prospect of change. Jack Welsby looked out of sorts at Leigh but is always capable of brilliance at fullback while Tommy Makinson joins Mata’utia not only on the right edge of the attack but also in the club of those hoping to avoid an early farewell. Makinson will join Catalans Dragons whenever Saints’ season is put out of its misery. For now he’ll be in his regular wing spot outside Mata’utia and opposite Mark Percival and Jon Bennison on the other flank. The likely halfback combination is between captain Jonny Lomax and Lewis Dodd - the third member of the departing trio hoping to extend their stay by another week.
The headline for Burgess is that he can once again call on prop Paul Vaughan after suspension. The former St George-Illawarra Dragon is over 1,000 metres down on what he made in his debut season for Wire in 2023 but is still their key yardage maker among the forwards. Joe Philbin is also back to strengthen a front row group that potentially includes Luke Yates, James Harrison, Tom Whitehead and Zane Musgrove.
Between the props the hooking duo comprises of another Dream Teamer in Danny Walker backed up by ex-Wigan veteran Sam Powell. Matty Nicholson and the much traveled pantomime villain and one time England centre John Bateman form the back row along with Ben Currie.
Matt Dufty returned at fullback for last week’s 54-0 win over London Broncos. He will add the kind of pace that Saints can only dream of at present. Wire already have Matty Ashton and Josh Thewlis on the wings with Rodrick Tai returning to partner Toby King in the centres. At halfback Josh Drinkwater and George Williams can shift a bit, too. In the unlikely event that Saints pull this one off it will be Drinkwater’s last game for Warrington.
This will be the fourth meeting between the sides in 2024. Saints haven’t won any of the previous three, so quite how anyone expects them to win this one is beyond my comprehension. The first of those three defeats came in the Challenge Cup quarter final in April and was arguably the worst of the lot. A Saints side missing only Lees from what you might call it’s strongest 17 was blown away 31-8 at home.
In mid-July - again at home - Harrison’s dismissal and a yellow card for Nicholson was still not enough to awaken Wellens’ narcoleptic attack as Saints went down 24-10. Most recently the attack was the big problem again as Saints were held tryless in a 16-2 defeat at the Halliwell Jones.
The teams met at this stage of the playoffs last year though it was Saints who had finished third in the regular season and enjoyed the home advantage over the then sixth placed Wolves. I suspect that fairly soon I’ll have far happier memories of that 16-8 win - earned courtesy of tries from Makinson and Dodd and four Percival goals - than I will of this one. My only doubt about Warrington is that they may be going into it a little untested. That 54-0 win over London was preceded by an even sillier 66-0 shoeing of Huddersfield Giants.
For all the pessimism in these words I don’t expect a defeat on that scale. There isn’t too much wrong with Saints defence. Statistically it is still the fourth best in the competition. It’s their inability to score points that will probably be their undoing. The attack is too slow and predictable. That’s in contrast to Wire’s pacy attack which should be more than capable of getting enough points to earn a home semi-final with Leigh Leopards next week.
Squads;
Warrington Wolves;
- Matt Dufty 2. Josh Thewlis 3. Toby King 4. Stefan Ratchford 5. Matty Ashton 6. George Williams 7. Josh Drinkwater 8. James Harrison 9. Danny Walker 10. Paul Vaughan 11. Ben Currie 13. Matty Nicholson 14. Rodrick Tai 15. Joe Philbin 16. Zane Musgrove 17. Jordy Crowther 29. Tom Whitehead 32. Sam Powell 34. Arron Lindop 41. Luke Yates 42. John Bateman
Saints;
- Jack Welsby, 2. Tommy Makinson, 3. Waqa Blake, 4. Mark Percival, 5. Jon Bennison, 6. Jonny Lomax, 7. Lewis Dodd, 8. Alex Walmsley, 9. Daryl Clark, 10. Matty Lees, 11. Sione Mata’utia, 12. Joe Bactchelor, 13. Morgan Knowles, 15. James Bell, 17. Agnatius Paasi, 19. Matt Whitley, 20. George Delaney, 21. Ben Davies, 24. Jake Burns, 30. Jonny Vaughan, 31. Noah Stephens.
Referee: Liam Moore
Video Referee: Chris Kendall
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