A Saints playoff appearance looked an unlikely prospect earlier in the year. But the focus now is on finishing as high as possible in the top six. Here to try to thwart those attempts are fellow playoff contenders Hull FC who arrive on Friday night (August 22, kick-off 8.00).
With only five games remaining until the knockout stuff
starts Saints have risen to third on the back of three straight wins. Yet with major contenders Hull KR, Wigan and
Leigh still to face a win over John Cartwright’s black and whites is a non-negotiable.
Thirty points was good enough to earn Saints a playoff berth
last season. Paul Wellens’ side reached
that tally with last week’s 52-4 rout of Huddersfield Giants. Hopes are high that the red vee can finish
higher than last year’s sixth placed but with a tough run-in to come it is
imperative that they get a win this week.
Saints have 15 wins and seven losses from their 22 league outings
so far. They are only two points behind French-less,
free-falling Wigan Warriors in second.
But a quick look over the shoulder reveals that Saints are only
separated from fourth placed Leeds Rhinos on points difference. Brad Arthur’s side face KR tonight (August
21). If that goes to form and Rovers get
their 20th league win of the campaign Saints could put some daylight
between themselves and the Headingley outfit.
Defensive Strength And Attacking Pragmatism
It is largely Saints’ defence which has got them to this
point. They have conceded a miserly 30
points in the last five league games.
Within that period was a 13-6 success over this week’s visitors. The attack has been a mixture of limited
ambition and a repeatable kicking game mixed in with the occasional flash of
brilliance from the likes of Harry Robertson and Owen Dagnall.
While it has been ugly at times Saints are exactly where those
not infected by the happy clapper bug might have expected them to be. A probable top four side but nobody’s
favourites to win the lot. There are
some outstanding youngsters coming through but there isn’t the same depth in the
squad as in the dominant years. There
are too many players who are – if not over the hill – then balancing
precariously at the top looking down.
Wellens likely knows this and has responded by taking
pragmatism to absurd levels on occasion.
But to this point the overall result is largely par for the course given
the tools at his disposal. That could
change in these final few weeks. Either way – and whether Wellens is still
around to oversee it or not - a significant rebuild is required if they are to
return to the very elite.
Jack’s Back
For now it helps that Jack Welsby returned to action against
the Giants after a lay-off of more than two months. He is undeniably Saints’ best player and one
of the standout players in the league.
Yet his comeback coincides with the best form of Tristan Sailor’s short
Saints career. Hate to say I told you so. Sailor’s form gives Wellens some thinking to
do about how to get the best out of both the Australian and the talismanic
Welsby. The progress of Robertson – and the
adaptability he has displayed filling in at centre – along with the emergence
of Dagnall and a few sneak previews of young halfback George Whitby have been
other highlights of 2025.
On the flip side the recent reluctance to select Whitby
ahead of Moses Mbye at halfback has scuppered any thoughts of the attack being
anything other than functional. The
aerial prowess of winger Kyle Feldt is a major weapon which tells you something
about the approach. It is hardly Harlem
Globetrotters stuff.
Knowles Departure Looms
Up front there has been too much reliance on the ageing Alex
Walmsley to get the side down the field while for the first time fans are
asking questions about the potential of George Delaney. Noah Stephens has not had much game time but
he seems to have taken on the mantle of the next great front row hope.
Daryl Clark is always a threat at hooker but is not the dynamic
player who was named Man Of Steel over a decade ago. Injury seems to have lessened the impacts
being made by Joe Batchelor and James Bell though both could still have a key
role to play before they head east to join this week’s opponents for 2026. Along with Walmsley the pack relies hugely on
Morgan Knowles – who along with Batchelor and Bell will depart at the end of
the season.
If you are worried about who will replace Knowles (Shane
Wright, Ollie Partington, anyone?) then put your hands together and pray that
no injury problems befall the former Wales international before he teams up
with Kristian Woolf at the Dolphins in the NRL. There isn’t currently a player in
the squad who could adequately fill in for Knowles. His work rate is what the cool kids call next
level while a look back at the best tries scored by the side this season will reveal
the involvement of Knowles on a large number of occasions.
The future without him is another problem altogether. And one we would do well as a fan base not to
have to think about too much for now. Season
tickets at the ready to hurl directly in Mr Rush’s face should we acquire
ex-Wigan and Salford grub Partington. This column has complained about acts of
grubbiness by Knowles in the past but he is not in the Partington league when
it comes to recklessness. By the same
token Partington does not influence games in anything like the same way Knowles
does. Show me the upside.
Playoffs – What’s Still Possible, And What’s More
Probable
Saints can reach a maximum of 40 points this term. Last season that was good enough to secure
third place for Warrington. Remember
them? Third place would mean a home
playoff game in the first round and then an away date with whoever finishes
second. Most likely our friends from
across the lump. Yet 40 points seems
fanciful. It would mean beating all of Wigan, KR and Leigh in the run-in. Saints have not beaten any of these sides since
a 12-4 success over the Warriors on Good Friday last year. Nor have they come particularly close this
season.
It's maybe reasonable to expect Saints to win one of those
games against Rovers, the Warriors or the Leopards. So if Saints can beat FC this weekend and secure
the expected victory over Castleford at home in the last week of the regular
season that would see them finish on 36 points.
That total was good enough for fourth last year. Yet it is hard to say with any certainty that
it will be again. Things are so tight
between Saints, Leeds and Leigh that you could make a convincing argument for
the three to finish in any order between third and fifth. You’re still thinking about second, aren’t
you? Stop it.
Like Saints, Leeds face both Hull clubs and Wigan in their
last five. Leigh host Saints but aside from
that they have gentler assignments to come. Out of their depth Salford, not a
lot better Castleford and the absolute fodder that is Huddersfield all feature. As do a Warrington side which all but gave up
on 2025 when it lost the Challenge Cup final to Hull KR in June. Based on the fixtures the Leopards must be
favourites to finish third even though as we sit here today they are a point
behind both Saints and the Rhinos. In the unlikely event that it comes down to
points difference Saints have a massive advantage over the other two. Rival
fans put that down to three meetings with the Red Devils. And what?
They all count.
What Of Hull?
Hull’s focus will just be on getting into the top six ahead
of Wakefield Trinity. Yet the fact that
they are concerning themselves with that problem shows how far they have come
in the first season under Cartwright. They
languished in 11th last season, veering somewhere between an
embarrassment and a disgrace.
They are currently sixth, a point ahead of Trinity but with
all of Saints, Leeds and Hull KR still to face.
Normally you would suggest that the derby with Rovers is immune to the
influence of form but there is an obvious gulf between the two this year which
makes the Robins firm favourites. Hence you would think that FC need to beat
one of Saints or Leeds.
Meanwhile Wakefield’s upsurge in form in 2025 has been
impressive enough to earn Head Coach Daryl Powell another four-year deal at the
club. They are right in the mix for knockout football. Although they take on the top two in the
remaining weeks they also meet a poor Catalans Dragons, Huddersfield and Salford. It is easy to see them finishing right on
that 30-point mark which secured Saints a playoff place a year ago.
2025 Meeting And Hull Selection Options
Saints’ 13-6 win over FC in July is the only meeting between
the two so far in 2025. Don’t let the
fact that Wellens’ side have faced Salford and Leeds three times each in that
time confuse you. It’s only loop
fixtures, doing its thing baby. Saints
earned a hard fought win at the MKM Stadium.
There is little reason to suggest that things will be any easier this
time around. Home advantage on this
occasion is a factor but Hull are about as predictable as the Humberside weather. Literally anything could happen even if you
would say that Saints go in as slight favourites.
Cartwright has had to make changes to his 21-man squad for
the trip following last week’s win over the Leopards. Will Pryce and Liam Watts are out along with knee-wrecking
Saints nemesis John Asiata. More
positively, Cartwright can once again call on ex-Canberra Raider Jordan Rapana,
much travelled three-quarter Ed Chamberlain and the most famous mullet and
tache combo in rugby league’s northern hemisphere Brad Fash.
Look out also for young wing pairing Lewis Martin and Harvey
Baron as well as halfback Aidan Sezer.
Another ex-Raider, Sezer had an underwhelming spell with Leeds but
showed previously at Huddersfield that he is capable of controlling games at
this level. He has been instrumental in
the improvement shown by FC in 2025.
Prop Herman Ese’ese and Davy Litten are key also.
Can Wellens Solve The Fullback Conundrum?
So how do you solve a problem like Sailor? Welsby has to play and most observers are
suggesting that he has to feature in his regular fullback role. Which awkwardly is the one that Sailor has
been excelling in recently. Either could
play in the halves as a 6 but that would force Wellens to break up his favoured
halfback partnership of Mbye and Jonny Lomax.
He is unlikely to do that even though it is a dynamism free zone.
There have been suggestions that Mbye has announced his impending
departure from UK shores on his social media accounts but that will do nothing
to stop Wellens from relying on him for as long as Saints’ 2025 campaign
lasts. So how do you fit in all four of
Welsby, Sailor, Lomax and Mbye?
Sailor appeared on the wing earlier in the season while
Feldt was recovering from a hand injury and even had a stint at hooker against
the Giants last weekend. The emergence
of Dagnall complicates the prospect of going back to the former plan. If you were riled by the jettisoning of
Whitby then how are you going to feel if Dagnall’s unpredictable winding runs
towards the try line are taken out of the Saints armoury? Meanwhile having
Sailor at hooker in the longer term looks a pretty barmy idea from a defensive
standpoint. Is he going to be able to
make 40+ tackles with the likes of Ese’ese running at him? I would respectfully suggest not.
Wellens has been flapping his gums in the media about having
both Welsby and Sailor operating in fullback roles. At the same time. Quite how this will work could be an interesting
reveal if it happens. But it is probably
just semantics. What it will likely mean
is that they will both be involved in attacking structures and getting their
hands on the ball at key points. It’s
just a question of where each of them starts from in order to do that.
Defensively it is more likely that Welsby will be the one to
drop back to cover the Sezer kicking game.
Sailor has looked a little more unsettled under the high ball. That’s blood in the water for a player of
Sezer’s class.
Other Pack Options
Curtis Sironen will return in the pack so that might see
Batchelor revert to a bench spot. The
rest of the pack will be largely unchanged with Walmsley and Lees in the front
row with Clark, Matt Whitley alongside Sironen in the second row and Knowles at
what used to be known as the base of the scrum.
Agnatius Paasi, Delaney and Bell could offer further support off the
bench. Whitby isn’t the only first team
ready player set to miss out with Deon Cross and Jake Burns also struggling for
game time as the injury crisis subsides.
Saints With An Edge
This one won’t decide those playoff permutations but it will
have a significant bearing on how both Saints and FC are shaping up with what
will only be four rounds left. Defeat
could be very damaging to ambitions so we should expect intensity. If you believe positions within the top six influence
the chances of reaching Old Trafford then this one matters. At home I would just about give Saints the
edge, particularly with that strangling defence in outstanding form. It is hard to say what Hull will do on any
given day but if they struggle for points then the home side should have just
about enough in their stulted attack to get the job done.
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